Not for the first time, Boeing is again the subject of unwanted attention from regulators and customers over safety issues.
The shocking scenes on Friday night, in which a Boeing 737 MAX 9 operated by Alaska Airlines suffered a mid-air blow-out, has again raised questions over the safety of the jet.
Boeing shares fell by 8% in pre-market trading today while shares of Spirit AeroSystems, which made and installed the fuselage part on the jet, were down by as much as 20%.
Cause for concern
There are several reasons for investors and management at Boeing to be worried.
The first is that the main US regulator of civil aviation, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), has ordered the grounding of dozens of 737 MAX 9 jets, as has its European counterpart.
Boeing has, to date, delivered 218 of the aircraft.
More on Boeing
Of these, some 171 have been grounded, including 79 operated by United Airlines and a further 65 operated by Alaska. The remaining 74 which have been grounded are operated by six other airlines, led by Copa Airlines of Panama, Aeromexico, Icelandair and Turkish Airlines.
It is rare for the FAA to ground so many aircraft at once and underlines the seriousness with which this particular safety breach is being taken. Boeing has said publicly it is supportive of the FAA’s approach but, in reality, there was little else it could have said.
Familiar territory for Boeing
Privately, it will be worried about a lengthy grounding of the aircraft, because Boeing has been here before.
The 737 MAX was grounded in 2019 after a fatal crash involving Indonesia’s Lion Air in October 2018 and another involving an Ethiopian Airlines flight in March 2019.
Both accidents involved 737 MAX 8 models.
Boeing was forced to suspend production of the 737 MAX in December 2019 and, five days later, its former chief executive, Dennis Muilenburg, was sacked. The FAA insisted on the grounding of the 737 MAX, on that occasion, for a year. In other countries, the aircraft were grounded for longer, with Chinese airlines only resuming flights of them in January last year.
Airline worries
The second concern will be over the likely reaction of customers.
The 737 MAX 9 is the latest model in the 737 MAX family – the second-most frequently flown commercial airline in the world – and a slightly larger version of the MAX 8 which, to date, is its biggest-selling jet.
Boeing has been preparing for a major ramping-up in production of the 737 MAX 9. It is currently producing 38 of the aircraft each month but is targeting production of 50 per month by 2026.
That could be jeopardised if airlines lose confidence in the aircraft.
Possible winners
The likely beneficiary of this would be Airbus, whose rival A320 neo family of jets overtook the 737 MAX as the world’s most commercially successful family of aircraft in 2019.
But it has a huge order backlog and that may deter some airlines from taking their business away from Boeing.
In 2019, Mr Muilenburg insisted on continuing production of the aircraft, arguing that a suspension of them could prove costly.
Many now see that decision as a mistake. If the 737 MAX 9 remains grounded for more than a few weeks, there will be intense interest on how Boeing reacts on the production front.
A big job ahead for Boeing
In any case, Boeing has a big job on its hands now to convince those airlines that it is on top of quality control issues, that it and its suppliers have not been cutting corners.
There was much commentary from industry experts over the weekend that what happened with the Alaska Airlines jet concerned a narrow, specialist component and was not indicative of wider production issues.
The chair of the National Transport Safety Board, Jennifer Homendy, has since said the auto pressurisation fail light illuminated on three previous flights: on 7 December, and 3 and 4 January and Alaska Airlines had restricted the aircraft from long flights over water.
Yet the latest issue comes only months after production of the 737 MAX was all but halted when, in August last year, it was discovered that fastener holes in the fuselage had been mis-drilled.
It meant that, in September last year, Boeing delivered just 15 737 MAX jets – the lowest monthly delivery since launch. On that occasion, components supplied by Spirit AeroSystems were to blame.
Pilot reactions
The third concern will be around how those flying the aircraft react. The pictures from the Alaska Airlines jet were truly horrifying and will have rattled many flyers.
They will have also noted that this accident was early in the flight and that, had the Alaska aircraft been further out from the airport than just 10 minutes when the door blew out, things could have been far worse.
The plane was still gaining altitude, at 16,000 feet, so passengers remained strapped into their seats. Had the aircraft been cruising at an altitude of 30-35,000 feet, with passengers moving around the cabin of the aircraft, there would undoubtedly have been casualties.
This was a point made by Ms Homendy at the weekend: “Think about what happens when you’re in cruise – everybody’s up and walking, folks don’t have seat belts on, they’re going to rest rooms, the flight attendants are providing service to passengers.
“We could have ended up with something so much more tragic.”
Not too many people study in detail, when they book a flight, what aircraft they will be flying on.
A few more might now do so in future.
Boeing now faces a crucial 48 hours – during which time few are expecting much of an update from the FAA on how long the grounding of the 737 MAX may last or how long the investigations being carried out by it and the NTSB may take.
Dave Calhoun, who succeeded Mr Muilenburg as CEO and who appeared to be winning back the confidence of customers, regulators and investors – Boeing shares rose by nearly a third in 2023 – will be addressing colleagues on Tuesday in a company-wide webcast on safety matters.
His words and those of Stephanie Pope, who was appointed Boeing’s new chief operating officer less than a month ago, will be heavily scrutinised.
The allegations of poor production quality may prove harder to shake off than in 2019.