Netanyahu’s rule ‘in jeopardy’, says US intelligence report

Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition is “in jeopardy”, according to a US intelligence assessment that highlighted mass protests against Israel’s prime minister and the prospect of looming elections.

The conclusions over Netanyahu’s precarious political position were part of the US intelligence community’s “annual threat assessment” report on Monday, which reflects the “collective insights” of Washington’s intelligence agencies. “Netanyahu’s viability as leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties . . . may be in jeopardy,” the assessment said.

It added that distrust of the long-serving premier, which was high even before Hamas’s October 7 attacks and Israel’s offensive in Gaza, “has deepened and broadened across the public”.

Netanyahu’s support has cratered in the wake of the bloody Hamas attack on the Jewish state, with both his rightwing Likud party and governing coalition expected to lose substantial parliamentary seats in any new election. Noting the potential for an election, the US intelligence report argued that “a different, more moderate government is a possibility” after any vote. Public opinion polls have consistently shown that about 70 per cent of the Israeli public want Netanyahu to step down either immediately or just after the war against Hamas in Gaza is concluded.

The US assessment acknowledged that Netanyahu’s stated objective of “destroying Hamas” enjoyed strong public backing in Israel. But it warned that the Jewish state “probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come” given the challenges of uprooting the militant group’s vast underground tunnel network in Gaza.

The report was doubtful about positive “governance outcomes” in postwar Gaza, citing Hamas’s enduring public support, the “continued animosity” between the militant group and its rivals in the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, as well as Israeli government policies. “Much . . . will hinge on Israel’s decisions regarding how to deal with Gaza in the aftermath of its campaign as well as the scale and scope of its support for the PA,” the report said.

The intelligence report was clear cut in stating that Iranian leaders “did not orchestrate nor had foreknowledge of the Hamas attack against Israel”. But it said Tehran had since encouraged its proxy militias across the region to mount attacks against Israeli and US interests, including from Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed armed movement based in Lebanon, has been engaged in near-daily cross-border fire with Israel since the outbreak of war in Gaza — including a sharp escalation overnight on Tuesday. The US intelligence analysts described Hizbollah as nevertheless “calibrating this pressure on Israel” in order to “avoid a broader war that would devastate Hizbollah and Lebanon”.

But the report also warned that the movement, considered one of the most powerful non-state actors in the world, “will consider a range of retaliatory options” over the coming year depending on Israel’s actions in Lebanon.