The main rebel offensive has been led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, and various armed groups backed by Turkey. Other fighters have joined in, including army defectors who had fought the regime and laid down arms in previous ceasefires, said the people.
As rebels converge on Damascus from the north and south, Iran has drawn back its presence in Syria, leaving its military advisers concentrated around the capital, according to sources. Some Tehran-backed Iraqi militias have also returned to their country after the government ceded the eastern city of Deir Ezzor to US-backed Kurdish fighters, they said.
Russian personnel now remain mainly around the capital and at the Khmeimim airbase and Tartous naval base, they said.
After a meeting with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in Doha on Dec 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is “trying to do everything not to allow terrorists to prevail”.
“We don’t want them to follow the fate of Iraqis, Libyans and other nations who were disturbed by the people desiring to keep their domination,” he said.
Trump said on Dec 7 that a withdrawal from Syria might “be the best thing that can happen” to Russia and that troops should not get involved in the fighting.
Back channels
Russia has launched airstrikes around Homs to try to stall the rebel advance. But with signs the Kremlin’s help may not be enough, Mr Assad is pressing on with back-channel negotiations.
A key goal would be retaining control of a portion of the country and addressing Turkey’s demands for a political transition and the potential return of millions of Syrian refugees, a major issue for Ankara.
Mr Assad is also proposing a new constitution and talks with the mostly exiled political opposition, according to the people familiar with the outreach.
It is unclear if the efforts will bear fruit. Events on the battlefield have their own momentum, and even countries such as Turkey that have influence over the rebels may not be able to fully control events.
“I don’t think any of these outside powers have the leverage over their proxies to change the course of what is happening on the ground,” said Andreas Krieg, director of London-based MENA Analytica Ltd. “At this moment most bets are that the Assad regime may not be able to hold out.”
Patriarch visit
It was against that backdrop that Mr Assad sent Syriac Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius Aphrem II to Hungary on Dec 2 to relay his fears. Syria’s Christian community makes up about 10 per cent of the country’s 24 million population.
The plan to have Mr Orban relate this message to Trump was described by an aide to the patriarch and another person with knowledge of the encounter.
People close to Trump could not immediately comment, but said he had dispatched his in-law and Middle East adviser, Massad Boulos, to the United Arab Emirates on Dec 7 to discuss the situation in the region.
Mr Assad has pursued similar tactics before. HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani and other rebels have in recent days attempted to allay the fears of Christians and Syria’s other minorities that they envision a form of Islamic rule.
Mr Assad’s own Alawite community, which has stuck by him since 2011 and paid a heavy price to defend the regime, also appears to sense the end may be near.
Nariman, an Alawite woman reached by phone in Damascus on Dec 6 said she, her husband who is in the security forces and their 23-year-old son were fleeing to their ancestral village near Jableh in western Syria. She said there were many families like hers.
Nobody is going to fight for Mr Assad this time, she said, asking not to be identified by her last name for reasons of safety.